Contact: Pat Pemberton

ppembert@calpoly.edu; 805-235-0555

SAN LUIS OBISPO — This year’s NBA Finals, featuring two small-market teams with low budgets, demonstrates a shift away from teams driven by star power, says an economics professor who has researched how NBA teams can build winners.

“In the 1990s, Michael Jordan was the best player, and the Bulls won six championships — and would likely have won more if he didn’t play baseball in the middle,” said Joseph Kuehn, an associate professor of economics at the Orfalea College of Business. “Then in the 2000s, the stars of the league were Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, and the Lakers won five titles, and the Spurs won four during that stretch. And then we had the LeBron (James) years where he went to the NBA Finals for eight straight years from 2011-2018. But now the league is in a place where there aren’t one or two stars that dominate the league. And so I think that allows smaller-market teams that draft and spend well to win.”

The NBA Finals begin Thursday in Oklahoma City, where the home team, Thunder, will take on the Indiana Pacers.

While East and West Coast teams have spent big money on acquiring stars, Kuehn’s research concludes that a better strategy is to build a team with players who work well together, like this year’s finalists.

“Both teams have built rosters with complimentaries in mind,” he said.

oseph Kuehn poses on the basketball court

According to Basketball Reference, an internet-based database for statistics and history, the Thunder had the 25th-ranked team payroll (out of 30) this year, while the Pacers were ranked 18th. Meanwhile, neither team had a player on the top 20 salaries list.

And yet, Kuehn said, he is looking forward to this year’s NBA best-of-seven championship series.

“I know everyone is saying how unhappy the NBA must be that they have two small-market teams in the finals, but this is a really exciting matchup,” he said. “The fast-paced offense of Indiana has been a thrill to watch in the playoffs, and OKC’s defense has been suffocating. I think it will be a great matchup of strength versus strength.”

The Pacers are led by point guard Tyrese Haliburton and power forward Pascal Siakam, but during the playoffs, several other starters, including Aaron Nesmith and Myles Turner, have had big moments. The Thunder, meanwhile, feature three go-to stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.

“My research says that the best complementarities are generated between Haliburton and Siakam,” Kuehn said. “Siakam does not need the ball and is an efficient scorer from various positions on the court. This perfectly complements Haliburton’s strengths as a passer and a ball-dominant player.”

Nonetheless, he thinks it will be tough to beat OKC.

“While I’ll argue that the Pacers have a roster of players that better complement each other, I don’t think they’re a match for the talent on OKC, especially on the defense side of the ball,” Kuehn said. “I think that Indiana is going to struggle on the boards and the strength of OKC, and the depth of OKC could be a back breaker.”

Top photo: Joseph Kuehn, an associate professor of economics at the Orfalea College of Business, talks with students about using analytics in sports. 

Photo by Jahan Ramezani